Talk about timing. A few days after buying Foot Locker Inc. (FL/US) the company forecasts its first loss in six years and the stock hits its lowest price in 3-1/2 years.
There is some good news.
The company has officially confirmed hiring Lehman Brothers to advise it on selling itself. Foot Locker said in a statement that it has received inquiries from buyout firms, but a company spokesperson declined further comment.
Getting kicked by the stock price so soon after buying the company is no fun. But it's way too early to call this a stomping. ;-)
I started buying FL about 3 months ago, and have been buying down to add to my current stake in the company. Much like yourself, I have had the same experience with FL. It seems that my personal theory has proven to be true once again: Once I buy inevitably the price will drop.
This does not concern me too much. A quote I like to remember is "For some reason people take their cues from price action rather than from values. Price is what you pay. Value is what you get." Looking forward to seeing what FL will do in the future.
Posted by: mary | July 31, 2007 at 09:04 AM
FL received buyout offers in the mid 20s or thats what the rumors were about 3-6 months ago and I think KKR was the interested party. Whitney Tilson is in FL but I've actually considered shorting it further. On Seeking Alpha I wrote a write up GPS back in Feb of this year of why it was a good short following their hiring of GS to sell the co in an LBO, stock was at $20 or so, i covered in the mid $17s. I will take a look at FL and may short it but I've done a lot of work on LBOs before starting my hedge fund so if the cash flows aren't there I don't see an LBO occuring. I'd imagine the value levers are close down the underperforming stores and rationalize the various brands FL owns, I'm not sure that can still generate an attractive return given the shift in consumer tastes towards the lower priced casual footwear. From what I've seen FL's sq footage is fairly high so they need the lebrons, jordans, and other high priced sneakers to drive operating leverage.
I see FL at 1.3x book as a value trap in the way CC may be as well. FL may continue to sustain losses going forward which will erode BV (as I believe CC will too although FL's dynamics are better, they are the BBY of their industry) but I'd be cognizant of bv eroding, it's a razor thin margin business as it is so any softness in sales can really tip the scales adversely.
I actually like FINL much more although I'm not sure if the Genesco acq makes sense/will work out but they have a good idea in Paiva I believe and their Urban clothing stores. I think those can eventually be scaled up and then spun off/sold plus the FINL stores tend to be smaller (I think) than FL.
Posted by: Amit Chokshi | July 31, 2007 at 10:38 AM
With high-yield bond financing of many LBOs running into problems I am not sure how much one can rely on buyouts anymore.
Anyway, I wonder if there are industry-wide problems in the shoe retailer area. There have been quite a few shoe companies (PSS, DSW, FL), along with some really beaten down ones (FINL, SHOE) showing weak profits. The stock price of most of these companies are down 20%+ in the last couple of months.
Posted by: Sivaram Velauthapillai | July 31, 2007 at 03:12 PM
DSW is probably the best out of those as a company, women love that store and its run very well and expanding. They have lofy goals for sales per sq feet but I think a bottom for DSW may be approaching. FL, FINL are in deeper trouble in my opinion. DSW sells brand name shoes at good prices. I'm in Fairfield county CT and have visited DSWs in CT and in westchester and they have some affluent women shoppers that go there. Sell all of the top brands except Nike I believe for athletics and then top line professional shoes too.
Posted by: Amit Chokshi | July 31, 2007 at 05:35 PM
http://www.controlledgreed.com/2007/07/foot-locker.html#comment-78014538
Posted by: 2L | August 01, 2007 at 01:32 AM
mary: I agree with you. "Buying too early" is an affliction of value investors. I hope that Foot Locker proves to be an example of that.
Amit: You may be right, but don't take it personally if I hope you're wrong. ;-)
2L: I don't see the leases as a problem, though I may be wrong in taking that view. Foot Locker generates cash, has increased its dividend, and bought back shares. And the management is shareholder friendly.
Posted by: John | August 02, 2007 at 12:28 AM