Controlled Greed.com "Life of the Blog" Stock Picks Average +29.7% Through Third Quarter of 2007

I’ve made 20 stock purchase recommendations since then launching this blog on April 27, 2005. Here’s how they have each performed from their selection through the third quarter of 2007, listed in the order of being recommended.

NOTE: Results include dividends and returns of capital to shareholders when applicable.

• General Motors was mentioned on 4/29/05 at $26.75. It closed 9/28/07 at $36.70. This position is +49.3%.

• Fairfax Financial was mentioned on 5/3/05 at $132.50. More shares were later purchased for an average cost of $123.16. It closed 9/28/07 at $244.00. This position is +82.3%.

• 3i Group was mentioned on 5/17/05 at $17.74 (adjusted for three subsequent reverse stock splits). It closed 6/29/07 at $20.25. This position is +66.8%.

• Nikko Cordial ADR was mentioned on 5/26/05 at $8.64 (adjusted for a 5-for-1 ADR split). It closed 9/28/07 at $12.55. This position is +66.4%.

• Imagistics International was mentioned on 6/30/05 at $26.60. It was bought by Oce, N.V. later in 2005 for $43.00 cash. This position closed out +58%.

• Molson Coors Class B was mentioned on 6/13/05 at $60.35. The entire stake was sold on 2/13.07 at $82.35. This position closed out +39.6%.

• DirecTV Group was mentioned on 7/21/05 at $15.50. It closed on 9/28/07 at $24.28. This position is +56.7%.

• Liberty Media Series A was mentioned on 8/4/05 at $8.52. The company then distributed to shareholders two tracking stocks, Liberty Capital and Liberty Interactive, this year. I view those two as a single position in the portfolio. Capital closed 9/28/07 at $124.83 and Interactive closed at $19.21. This position is +29.6%.

• USA Mobility was mentioned on 8/24/05 at $26.34. It closed on 9/28/07 at $16.87. This is a prime example of why including payouts is important. Still, this position is -5.2%.

• Comcast Class A Special was mentioned on 11/28/05 at the split-adjusted price of $17.82. One-quarter of the position was later sold at the split-adjusted price of $24.28. It closed on 9/28/07 at $23.96. This position is +34.9%.

• Deckers Outdoor was mentioned on 10/18/05 at $20.92. I later sold one-third of the stake for $30.08, then later sold more shares for $46.80. The remaining shares were sold on 2/15/07 at $63.58. This position closed out +131.

• CBS Class B was mentioned on 2/16/06 at $25.61. It closed on 9/28/07 at $31.50. This position is +27.6%.

• Media General Class A was mentioned on 3/21/06 at $47.05. More shares were purchased for an average cost of $44.76. It closed on 9/28/07 at $27.51. This position is -35.7%.

• Takefuji Corp. was mentioned on 4/20/06 at $62.50. More shares were purchased on two separate occasions for an average cost of $49.18. It closed on 9/28/07 at $19.83. This position is -57.4%.

• Mueller Water Products Series A was mentioned on 7/19/06 at $15.88. I nibbled on a few more shares for an average cost of $15.64. It closed 9/28/07 at $12.39. This position is -20.3%.

• BCE Inc. was mentioned on 8/6/06 at $23.01. I later sold one-quarter of the stake for $36.31. It closed 9/28/07 at $40.05. This position is +75.0%.

• ArmorGroup International was mentioned on 9/7/06 at $1.03. It closed on 9/28/07 at $1.30. This position is +31.4%.

• Walter Industries was mentioned on 9/27/06 at $43.21. Mueller Water Products Series B was later spun off from Walter. On 5/18/07 Walter Industries was sold at $29.49 and Mueller Water Series B was sold at $15.78. Taken as a single position, these two combine for +28.9%.

• Aiful Corp. ADR was mentioned on 7/10/07 at $6.60. It closed on 9/28/07 at $4.00. This position is  -39.4%.

• Foot Locker was mentioned on 7/25/07 at $20.87. It closed on 9/28/07 at $15.33. This position is -26.6%.

In all, the stock picks made on this blog have averaged a gain of 29.7% during the life of this blog. This has been a painful quarter, which will be even more evident when posting YTD results for the stock picks.

Five points need to be made.

First, these are not “annualized” results or year-to-date results. These are simply how the stock picks have performed since being recommended. I will post YTD results next.

Second, as stated, these results include dividends and returns of capital to shareholders. I did this because not doing so distorted the performance of my stock picks -- especially in cases like 3i Group and USA Mobility.

Third, I factor in partial sales. Regular readers know I’ve taken partial profits in stocks such as BCE, Comcast, Fairfax Financial and Nikko Cordial over time. Factoring in these sales (and purchases when averaging down) gives readers a more accurate view of this blog’s stock picking performance.

Fourth, these are not “audited” results. They’re just my calculator and me and I’m subject to correction.

Fifth, I live in the US so I track my portfolio in US Dollars. Someone following my picks and residing in Canada, the UK or another country may see results better or worse than mine.

Comments

[Andy]

Ever thought of annualizing your numbers to better reflect the return over time?

[John]

Andy: Yes, I've thought about it and might even do it at some point. But anyone wanting to do that for themselves shouldn't have any problem.