Controlled Greed.com Portfolio Picks Average -3.1% in First Quarter of 2008

On average, my 20 current stock picks sank 3.1% in the first quarter. That compares to the S&P 500 being down 9.9%, according to WSJ.com. For reasons given in my previous post, I am now factoring in dividends and returns of capital to shareholders in my results. I don’t believe the S&P 500 result reported on WSJ.com includes dividends.

Here’s how each of the holdings covered on Controlled Greed.com have performed in the first quarter.

ArmorGroup International PLC +137.5%
Superior Industries International +19.2%
Whirlpool +6.8%
DirecTV Group +5.9%
Millea Holdings ADR +4.9%
Comcast Class A Special +4.7%
Fairfax Financial +0.01%
Takefuji -7.5%
Aiful ADR -8.9%
Liberty Media/Capital/Interactive -11.7%
Foot Locker -12.9%
Mueller Water Products Class A -13.9%
BCE -14.2%
3i Group PLC -15%
American Eagle Outfitters -15.2%
CBS Class B -18.1%
Office Depot -21%
General Motors -22.5%
Media General Class A -32.9%
USA Mobility -45.5%

Well, thank heavens for ArmorGroup International (or perhaps I should give thanks to the company buying ArmorGroup, which is why the stock price skyrocketed from where it ended 2007). Otherwise, with few exceptions such as Superior Industries, every holding dropped.

Yes, it’s nice to beat the S&P 500 -- but it is certainly cold comfort. You’ve read me post several times that “beating” the main index for US-based investors doesn’t mean much when you’re both playing in negative territory.

All that said, what happens in one quarter (or one year for that matter) is pretty meaningless. Moreover, several names with minus signs for the past three months are winners overall. But there’s no doubt that stocks like Takefuji, USA Mobility and Media General have punished the portfolio over the long term.

Some analysts are calling for better things in the second half of 2008. The more we hear that, the more worried we can get. Conventional wisdom, you know.

Comments

[Bill aka NO DooDahs!]

Your best bet to track dividend-adjusted S&P 500 returns is to use the SPY or IVV tickers. Divvies on the S&P 500 are running about 0.45% per quarter or about 1.8% annual.

Nice to track months and quarters, but you're right, the best thing to do is *also* track rolling 12, 24, 36 month returns for a portfolio. Helps one keep perspective and timeframe.

[John]

Bill: Thanks for the heads up regarding SPY and IVV.

Before I started this blog, I used to just calculate returns mid-year and end-of-year. I might go back to that because doing it quarterly is too much of an effort for me. Not to mention quarterly results don't mean much at all.