Five for Friday (and the Weekend)

With various issues preventing publication of last week's edition of Five for Friday, I'm sure you're desperately hoping another week won't go by dishing out the same fate to readers around the globe. Well, relax and check out these items as time allows over the next couple of days.

• The market has been lousy and, if you're like me, your stocks have taken a beating as well. But, again if you're like me, you buy stocks with a multi-year window not knowing what "the market" will do over the short or even intermediate term. Simply stated, if you and I can't stomach this stuff we shouldn't be in stocks at all. There are bargains out there and now is not the time to dump all your equities. Yeah, we could be facing the end of the world, but I doubt it.

• That said, plenty of my holdings are underwater. Underwater, but most will be fine over time. Yet I will have mistakes. I stated earlier this week that my Japanese consumer lenders -- Aiful (AIFLY/OTC) and Takefuji (8564/JP or TAKAF/OTC) -- have been mistakes. I haven't dumped them or anything, and will alert readers if they are sold. You might enjoy (?) this Bloomberg report focusing on the latest goings-on with Aiful and Takefuji.

• Among the portfolio's holdings underwater but not counted as a mistake is CBS (CBS/NYSE). I'm not as delighted with Les Moonves as I was some time back, but CBS is yielding 5% so I'm willing to wait and see what happens down the road. This Globe and Mail article discusses Sumner Redstone, controlling shareholder of both CBS and Viacom, which are both lower since spinning off CBS.

• Via Sivaram, I came across this MarketWatch interview with Jean-Marie Eveillard. He's very bearish, very much down on Alan Greenspan, and still likes Japan. Eveillard isn't finding much in the US to buy, though he names American Express as a stock he owns. The interview states he has 30% invested in Western Europe, matching the amount he has invested in Japan. I've been wondering lately if slow-growth "old" Europe isn't prime value investor hunting ground. Some companies headquartered there are cheap.

• If the stock performance of Japanese consumer lenders were magically turned into a nation state, they'd probably look a lot like Zimbabwe. The news there is tragic. Africa Confidential is a venerable publication that's been covering the continent since the Colonial system started ending in earnest in 1960. It has made this article on Zimbabwe and the power players in the military free to the public. You'll find analysis and reporting unavailable in most other press outlets.

And with that, have a great weekend one and all.

Comments

[David]

Jean-Marie is smart to allocate 30% to Europe.

John- Europe has many world companies that will do fine and are really worth investing in.So I would not write them off as being unattractive.

[John]

David: I agree -- I didn't mean to give the impression that European stocks wouldn't be attractive. I put "old" Europe in quotes, :-).

In short, you and I are in agreement that there are lots of world-class companies headquartered in Europe, and bargain-priced. If I was awash in cash right now I'd be a buyer.

[Sivaram Velauthapillai]

You know some of the Japanese lenders are turning into a disaster when a company (Aiful) threatens to sue someone (Lehman) for a bearish report. It's one thing to disagree with a report but to threaten a lawsuit? Yikes... anyway, it remains to be seen how badly the situation really is for the Japanese lenders...

[John]

Sivaram: I doubt Aiful will actually file a lawsuit. My hunch is they just say they're "considering" action to underscore their denial of being insolvent.

I should add that my belief Aiful and Takefuji have been mistakes has nothing to do with the Lehman report.

[David J Phillips]

John:

I agree with you in the context that CBS offers value w. a fairly secure 5.52% dividend yield.

That said, even at $25 a share, I could not get myself to pull the trigger & buy CBS stock, for when I look at the ticker symbol and station call letters, C*B*S, all I think about how its national nightly news segment at 6:30 PM has lost stature--along with audience numbers.

The EYE network no longer follows the tradition and
the journalistic integrity and demeanor of Walter Cronkite, "the most trusted man in America."

I guess I should thank Dan Rather and Katy Couric for convincing not to pay $25 or $30 for the stock.

"And that's the way it was!"

Best-
David J Phillips, Publisher
The 10Q Detective

[John]

David: Thanks for your comments, I even agree that CBS Evening News has lost its stature. But I remember Cronkite (I'm that old) and, based upon reflection and some of his comments over the years, CBS News' stature was always over estimated, IMHO.

But that's beside the point. Katie and Dan may make headlines, or more and more gossip type fluff reports, but the fate of CBS News will have little or nothing to do with whether or not the stock is a winner. Much more important are any moves Les Moonves makes with the publishing business, outdoor advertising business, and the radio stations, as well as the TV network itself.

I appreciate you not wanting to buy the stock because of Dan Rather and/or Katie Couric, and maybe not buying will prove to be a smart move. But not for those reasons. That's like some people who've told me they'd never buy News Corp. because Rupert Murdoch runs it. We'll just have to agree to disagree, amigo.

[David]

John
Thanks for the clarification.

There are lots of high quality European stocks out there.If someone had cash sitting around now is the time to jump in.:-)