Controlled Greed.com "Life of the Blog" Stock Picks Average +8.84% Through the Second Quarter of 2008

I’ve made 27 stock purchases since then launching this blog on April 27, 2005. Here’s how they have each performed from their selection through the second quarter of 2008, listed in the order of being recommended.

NOTE: Results include dividends and returns of capital to shareholders when applicable.

General Motors was mentioned on 4/29/05 at $26.75. It closed 6/30/08 at $11.50. This position is -42.1%.

Fairfax Financial was mentioned on 5/3/05 at $132.50. More shares were later purchased for an average cost of $123.16. It closed 6/30/08 at $253.90. This position is +90.3%.

3i Group was mentioned on 5/17/05 at $17.74 (adjusted for three subsequent reverse stock splits). It closed 6/30/08 at $16.33. This position is +45.5%. (This is an example where payouts have been the difference between a winner and a loser.)

Nikko Cordial ADR was mentioned on 5/26/05 at $8.64 (adjusted for a 5-for-1 ADR split). I later sold one-third of the position for $16.30. Then closed out the holding on 10/19/07 at $14.25. The position ended +79.8%.

Imagistics International was mentioned on 6/30/05 at $26.60. It was bought by Oce, N.V. later in 2005 for $43.00 cash. This position closed out +58%.

Molson Coors Class B was mentioned on 6/13/05 at $60.35. The entire stake was sold on 2/13.07 at $82.35. This position closed out +39.6%.

DirecTV Group was mentioned on 7/21/05 at $15.50. It closed on 6/30/08 at $25.91. This position is +67.2%.

Liberty Media Series A was mentioned on 8/4/05 at $8.52. The company eventually distributed to shareholders three tracking stocks, Liberty Entertainment, Liberty Interactive and Liberty Capital. I view these as a single position in the portfolio. Entertainment closed 6/30/08 at $24.23, Interactive closed at $14.76 and Capital closed at $14.40. This position is +8.6%.

USA Mobility was mentioned on 8/24/05 at $26.34. It closed on 6/30/08 at $7.55. This is another example of why including payouts is important. Still, this position has done terribly, down -34.7%.

Comcast Class A Special was mentioned on 11/28/05 at the split-adjusted price of $17.82. One-quarter of the position was later sold at the split-adjusted price of $24.28. It closed on 6/30/08 at $18.76. This position is +13.3%.

Deckers Outdoor was mentioned on 10/18/05 at $20.92. I later sold one-third of the stake for $30.08, then later sold more shares for $46.80. The remaining shares were sold on 2/15/07 at $63.58. This position closed out +131.

CBS Class B was mentioned on 2/16/06 at $25.61. It closed on 6/30/08 at $19.49. This position is -16.4%.

Media General Class A was mentioned on 3/21/06 at $47.05. More shares were purchased for an average cost of $44.76. It closed on 6/30/08 at $11.95. This position is -68.9%.

Takefuji Corp. was mentioned on 4/20/06 at $62.50. More shares were purchased on two separate occasions for an average cost of $49.18. It closed on 6/30/08 at $22.21. This position is -66%.

Mueller Water Products Series A was mentioned on 7/19/06 at $15.88. I nibbled on a few more shares for an average cost of $15.64. It closed 6/30/08 at $8.07. This position is -48%.

BCE Inc. was mentioned on 8/6/06 at $23.01. I later sold one-quarter of the stake for $36.31. It closed 6/30/08 at $33.73. This position is +60.4%.

ArmorGroup International was mentioned on 9/7/06 at $1.03. The company was acquired by G4S PLC in the UK for the equivalent of $1.58 on 5/28/08. The position closed out +61.3%.

Walter Industries was mentioned on 9/27/06 at $43.21. Mueller Water Products Series B was later spun off from Walter. On 5/18/07 Walter Industries was sold at $29.49 and Mueller Water Series B was sold at $15.78. Taken as a single position, these two combine for +28.9%.

Aiful Corp. ADR was mentioned on 7/10/07 at $6.60. It closed on 3/31/08 at $2.85. This position is  -56.1%.

Foot Locker was mentioned on 7/25/07 at $20.87. More shares were purchased later for an average cost of $18.93. It closed on 6/30/08 at $12.45. This position is -32.3%.

American Eagle Outfitters was bought on 11/16/07 at $22.58. The shares closed 6/30/08 at $13.63. This position is -38.8%.

Whirlpool was bought on 11/22/07 at $73.25. The shares closed 6/30/08 at $61.73. This position is -15%.

Office Depot was bought on 12/15/07 at $15.00. The shares closed 6/30/08 at $10.94. The position is -27.1%.

Millea Holdings ADR was mentioned on 1/11/08 at $35.25 and closed 6/30/08 at $38.90. The position is +10.4%. Millea changed its name to Tokio Marine Holdings last week.

Superior Industries International was bought on 3/3/08 at $17.41 and closed 6/30/08 at $16.88. The position is -2.1%.

Capital Southwest was purchased on 6/3/08 at $119.97 and closed 6/30/08 at $104.23. This position is -13.1%.

King Pharmaceuticals was bought on 6/4/08 at $9.98 and closed 6/30/08 at $10.47. This position is +5%.

In all, the stock picks made on this blog have averaged a gain of 8.84% during the life of this blog. The second half of 2007 was brutal for the portfolio, and the negative impact has continued with a vengeance the first half of 2008.

Five points need to be made.

First, these are not “annualized” results or year-to-date results. These are simply how the stock picks have performed since being recommended.

Second, as stated, these results include dividends and returns of capital to shareholders. I did this because not doing so distorted the performance of my stock picks -- especially in cases like 3i Group and USA Mobility.

Third, I factor in partial sales. Regular readers know I’ve taken partial profits in stocks such as BCE, Comcast and Fairfax Financial over time. Factoring in these sales (and purchases when averaging down) gives readers a more accurate view of this blog’s stock picking performance.

Fourth, these are not “audited” results. They’re just my calculator and me and I’m subject to correction.

Fifth, I live in the US so I track my portfolio in US Dollars. Someone following my picks and residing in Canada, the UK or another country may see results better or worse than mine.

Comments

[TL]

John, your method of calculating the results of your stock picks is meaningless, as it does not take into account the amount of time that has elapsed since each investment was made, nor the weighting of each investment in your portfolio. If you're going to report results, you should calculate the compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of the portfolio. Granted, CAGR isn't perfect (for example, it doesn't reflect volatility), but it's far more accurate and useful than your current method. By continuing to express your results in the manner in which you've done so far, you give the impression that you're trying to conceal the overall performance of your portfolio.

[John]

TL: I appreciate your comments, and I have all-but-decided to post results for my portfolio instead of the current way (which I've been doing since 2005). If you've read this blog regularly, you know I was inspired by the Barron's Roundtables, and wanted to track my stock picks. But over time, I doubt the value of doing that.

I'm not trying on conceal anything. Anyone with any depth of thinking should be able to see that. (Having an average stock pick make 8% or so over more than 3 years is nothing to brag about, that's for sure.) Again, thanks for the input.