Five for Friday (and the Weekend)

This is the last weekend in July, and the days are already getting shorter. The thing I like most about summer is the longer days. Winters wouldn't be so bad if there was more daylight. But I'm getting ahead of myself. We've still got the dog days of August to go yet. And here are five items you might wish to check out over the next couple of days.

• I was waiting to see what Jerry Flint would write in Forbes after Rick Wagoner's recent news conference on General Motors (GM/NYSE). Flint writes something said here several times -- that GM's operations outside the US and Canada are performing very well. Europe is iffy but, as he says, not without hope. Flint playfully suggests GM spin off its North American operations. Then says the company is doing that pretty much now anyway, pointing out the company employed 468,000 hourly workers in the US in 1979, and now has 76,000 as it enters 2009. It's been obvious for some time now that GM's future lies in Asia, Latin America and other emerging markets. I don't like that, but it is what it is.

• During the Gannon On Investing Blogger's Roundtable, I mentioned Munich Re as a non-bank financial that I didn't own but found attractive. Then sure enough, like clockwork, Munich Re announces "substantial" write downs on stock investments and lowers its profit forecast. Sick man that I am, this actually arouses my inner contrary indicator. Before today, Munich Re traded for a bit above hard book value and was thought to have very little exposure to the credit crunch. I haven't checked yet, but if the stock was to trade below book it might be a great buy. Of course, the risk is that today's write downs are the start of a trend. (I'll add for those of you interested that the company doesn't trade on any major US exchange and last I checked there are no ADRs trading OTC.)

• This Bloomberg report finds Templeton emerging markets guru Mark Mobius in Toronto, where he says he's finding bargains in China and India -- and still likes Brazil and Russia. The article includes opinions from some others, notably Jim Rogers and Marc Faber. Rogers reportedly says he hasn't sold any Chinese equities bought since 1999.

• I guess I'm a loyal Starbucks customer, in that I buy a bag of its ground House Blend in my local grocery store every week. I stop in a Starbucks coffee shop about, oh, two or three times a month at the most. And then I get whatever regular coffee they have that day. I don't know how much impact regular coffee drinkers have on their balance sheet -- do they make their money on those fancy beverages? Anyway, Matthew Lynn considers the decline of the Starbucks empire in The Spectator, and wonders if coffee is the bull market drink. Perhaps, but I don't recall Starbucks having these problems earlier this decade. I suspect it was just one of those growth stocks that can no longer grow like it did, and has entered a mature phase, which includes closing non-performing outlets.

• If you're planning a business or vacation trip, check out John T. Reed's packing list. I remember forgetting to take my razor on my first business trip, even though I went over in my mind countless times what NOT to forget. Luckily, the motel gift shop was open when I rushed down from my room to the lobby to by a razor after unpacking that night. And this was years before the cool look of not shaving for a few days got popular (though I'd never recommend that look the first time you meet a client or prospective client in person). It's surprising how long Reed's list is.

Well, that's it. Have a great weekend. And with the days getting shorter, hopefully the lights won't go out completely in the world's stock markets.

Comments

[David]

John
Your guess on Starbucks is correct.I too think Starbucks' growth days are over.Folks the world over are cutting down on those expensive lattes.It is not a growth stock anymore.

[John]

David: I guess one day soon we'll see it pop up as a holding in value funds! Though it has a ways to fall further, I'd imagine. First Wal-Mart and Dell, then Starbucks... ;-)