Georgia on My Mind and Flights of Fantasy

The whole Russia-Georgia thing got my buy-when-there's-blood-in-the-streets tendencies rocking and rolling last week. My first impulse was to see if there were any semi-market crashes in Russia or -- even better -- Georgia. And see if any companies there became incredibly undervalued.

Then I read several geopolitical types say that if Russia is intent on "reclaiming" its former Soviet republics, it wouldn't stop at Georgia. Looking at the map and you see that Ukraine is the big prize there.

Ukraine. My mind got to bubbling up memories of reading James Morton, Cundill's emerging markets guy, saying nice things about various Ukrainian firms he'd put money in. I think he even said some traded in London -- I haven't asked my broker about buying stocks in any former Soviet satellites but I know it's easy to buy stuff in London. And, if investors would be dumping stocks in Russia and Georgia, well they'd be doing the same with Ukrainian ones as well. If I could research and find the ones Cundill and the like held, they'd be great candidates to start off with.

Then, assuming they were selling for a fraction of their true worth, I could buy one or two. And then, assuming things calmed down and the Russian Bear pulled out of Georgia and the bullets stopped flying and the bombs stopped dropping, the markets in that part of the world would recover. And I'd rake in some great profits in relatively short order.

But that's a lot of assuming, folks.

And as the week wore on, my juices stopped flowing as my adrenalin calmed down. Reading what Joe Rosenberg, Loew's Chief Investment Officer, said in Barron's reflects my thoughts on coming back down to earth. It's hard enough making money investing in countries with the rule of law, let alone Russia (and I'll add countries impacted by it), where the law is whatever Vladimir Putin decides it is.

I've got enough on my plate. What with stocks like General Motors (GM/NYSE). And retail holdings American Eagle Outfitters (AEO/NYSE), Foot Locker (FL/NSYE) and Office Depot (ODP/NSYE) underwater with consumers struggling. And don't remind me of my Japanese consumer lenders.

Okay, I'm back to being sane now.

Comments

[know your greed]

I found your blog when I was researching investing in foreign stock exchanges. Great information, really uptodate insights with current world events....

thanks!

[John]

kyg: Glad you found us. Hope you'll find the blog worthy of your continued interest. Thanks.